We are currently faced with heavy global grain supplies which are based on international cereals markets, as a record output is becoming apparent.
UK cereal growers are on the verge of a brave new world as the Chinese market is now open to exports of barley.
This year, the Chinese are looking to import seven million tonnes of barley and the UK could have as much as 150,000 tonnes available, which is worth £20 million.
All the necessary permissions are now in place to give the UK access to mainland China which is a massive and growing market.
Demand for barley in China has been growing fuelled by a large and fast growing beer market while domestic production has, at the same time, been in decline.
GTAS and TASCC have been approved by the Chinese as meeting their requirements for exporters and elevators. Because of this, only barley handled by GTAS and TASCC are permitted to be exported to China.
Russia’s Prime Minister recently stated that the country will put in place a zero percent wheat export tax for two years starting from the middle of this month. Combined with a zero percent export tax, we could see more wheat coming to an already heavy market.
Over in the USA, the spring wheat harvest is almost over with 81% of the crop cut.
The US is the fifth largest wheat producer in the world with 2016/17 output forecast 13% higher than the previous season. This combined with record forecast Russian output will add additional competition to export markets.
In India, imports of grain are expected to soar this season with full season imports now being projected at 2Mt by the USDA, the largest amount since 2006/07. So far this calendar year, India has imported around 600Kt of the grain.
Despite the rise in Indian demand, globally, there is a surplus of wheat and so unless we face any further issues, the price of grain will remain steady and it is unlikely that we will see any record highs.
Seed Report
Here at Cope Seeds, we are looking for seed growers. This will allow farmers to earn an attractive premium over feed prices. We are currently looking to place the following seed acreages:
EAGLE Winter Oats- currently in Recommended List trial with yields 7% above Mascani, but retaining the quality of Mascani. Eagle is being backed by Agrii and the end users are committing to seeing large volumes from next harvest to do a full scale commercial evaluation. This seed crop would need to be grown in an area that is wild oat free or would be able to rouge should wild oats be an issue.
We will offer £25 over the AHDB feed wheat price at time of movement.
SECURO Winter triticale – this is a German bred variety which is high yielding. Securo also offers good grain quality and has a good disease profile.
We will offer £25 over the AHDB feed wheat price at time of movement.
