Harvest 2016 Results

Well here it is, our second Cope’s Weekly Wisdom.

The AHDB have this week released information on this year’s winter wheat harvest results in order to discover average yields and variance in disease resistance. The harvest results for winter wheat have brought the average yield to 10.70t/ha, which remains very close to the five year average of 10.61t/ha.

This year, JB Diego, KWS Santiago, Crusoe, Skyfall and Zulu are the control varieties. So far, the average 2016 control yield values only show yields based on one season from three sites. The five-year average is a better measure of their performance over the past five seasons (2012–2016). Each of these varieties are available from Cope Seeds, although Skyfall is now getting tight and we would advise ordering asap if this is your variety of choice.

Cope Seeds have so far seen Group 4 hard feed varieties giving the highest yields, with Graham currently on top with yields of 107%. Graham has also shown strengths in septoria tritici resistance in the west. In 2016, Belgrade is the second highest-yielding variety (105%) but we must remember the trials results so far are from the East and West, where Belgrade performs particularly well. Reflection, KWS Silverstone, KWS Crispin, Evolution, Dickens and KWS Santiago have all achieved 103%.

Based on 2016 yield alone, good performers include Skyfall (101%), KWS Trinity (99%) and RGT Illustrious (98%) in Group 1. KWS Siskin (103%) and KWS Lili (102%) in Group 2, look impressive in comparison to many feed wheat yields. KWS Barrel (103%), and Britannia (102%) are top Group 3 biscuit wheat performers. Leeds is the highest-yielding soft Group 4, with 102% of the control yields.

Moving onto oats, we have had reports that the outlook for the EU balance sheet in 2016/17 suggests a further record high of stocks. However, the UK will be starting the season with fewer opening stocks after strong demand in 2015/16. Early harvest results suggest a positive outlook for UK production but further yield and quality results will be vital. 

It is believed that harvest activity for UK oats is in line with recent years, at 50% completed by 23 August, the majority of which being winter sown crops. While there is limited information on yields so far, ADAS have estimated the typical range at 5.6-5.8t/ha, similar to the 5 year average. As harvesting of later crops and spring oats gets underway, AHDB have suggested that the outlook for oat yields could still change. Defra will release their provisional estimate of UK output on 13 October.

The outlook for the UK oats balance sheet will be of particular interest this season, given record high milling demand in 2015/16. If UK oat millers maintain their capacity and productivity, another year of high availability will be needed to satisfy domestic demand. With a favourable exchange rate, UK exports may be left competitive on a European basis.

Here at Cope Seeds, we have Dalguise, Mascani and RGT Lineout oats available. We are also buying oats for a number of outlets so please get in touch should you have any to sell.